Mixed Results From March Home Sales

Week of April 21, 2025 in Review

Home sales showed mixed results for new and existing properties in March, while the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book highlights how trade policy uncertainty is affecting businesses nationwide. Read on for these updates and more.

Existing Home Sales Fall Below Expectations
New Home Sales Climb in March
“Pervasive” Uncertainty Clouds Economic Outlook, Fed Report Shows
Jobless Claims Show Business Caution
Family Hack of the Week
What to Look for This Week
Technical Picture

Existing Home Sales Fall Below Expectations

March existing home closings disappointed, dropping 5.9% from February – nearly double the forecasted 3% decline. All regions saw decreases, with the West experiencing the largest drop, partly due to California wildfires delaying closings. These figures likely reflect transactions started in January and February when mortgage rates were higher.

What’s the bottom line? While inventory increased to 1.33 million units (up 8.1% month-over-month and 19.8% year-over-year), context is crucial. Current inventory levels remain near 30-year lows, significantly below pre-pandemic figures and almost 3 million units less than during the housing bubble period. This persistent supply shortage, combined with pent-up buyer demand, is a good sign for continued home price appreciation.

New Home Sales Climb in March

New home contracts increased for the second consecutive month in March, rising 7.4% from February. This growth exceeded market forecasts, fueled primarily by strong contract activity in the Southern region. Year-over-year sales showed a 6% increase.

While the median home price fell 1.9% to $403,600 from February, this doesn't indicate declining home values nationwide. Rather, the median price – representing the middle point of all homes sold – shifted due to more sales occurring in the South's relatively less expensive market, even as home prices continue rising across the country.

What’s the bottom line? While limited existing home inventory has redirected some buyers to new construction, supply still lags buyer interest. Of the 503,000 new homes available at the end of March, only 119,000 were completed, with the remainder either under construction or not yet started.

“Pervasive” Uncertainty Clouds Economic Outlook, Fed Report Shows

The Fed's latest Beige Book indicates economic activity has remained stable since the previous report, but uncertainty about international trade policy is "pervasive" across all regions.

Key findings include strong auto sales as consumers purchased ahead of tariffs, while non-auto spending declined. Both domestic and international tourism dropped, potentially signaling trouble for the travel sector. Many businesses are delaying hiring decisions due to tariff concerns. Economic decline reports doubled from two to four districts since the last assessment. Price increases were widespread, with businesses expecting tariff-driven cost increases.

What’s the bottom line? The Beige Book, published eight times yearly before Federal Open Market Committee meetings, offers qualitative insights from all 12 Federal Reserve districts. This report – the first reflecting recently implemented broad tariffs – mentioned tariffs 107 times (more than double the previous report), highlighting how trade uncertainty dominates economic concerns.

Jobless Claims Show Business Caution

Weekly initial jobless claims edged up by 6,000 to 222,000, though they remain at historically low levels. Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims dropped by 37,000 to 1.841 million.

What’s the bottom line? While new unemployment filings have stayed relatively low lately, continuing claims have consistently exceeded 1.8 million since last June. This suggests unemployed workers are taking longer to find new positions and companies are hiring more slowly, as businesses maintain a cautious "wait and see" approach amid economic uncertainty and tariff concerns.

Family Hack of the Week

April 30 marks both National Raisin Day and National Oatmeal Cookie Day – the perfect occasion to try these delicious Raisin Pecan Oatmeal Cookies from Food Network. This recipe yields 30 to 35 cookies.

First, preheat your oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. Spread 1 1/2 cups of pecans on a baking sheet and bake for 5 minutes until crisp. Allow the pecans to cool, then chop them coarsely.

In a stand mixer fitted with the paddle attachment, beat 1/2 pound (2 sticks) of unsalted butter (at room temperature), 1 cup of lightly packed dark brown sugar, and 1 cup of granulated sugar on medium-high speed until light and fluffy. Reduce the mixer speed to low, then add 2 extra-large eggs one at a time, followed by 2 teaspoons of vanilla.

In a separate bowl, sift together 1 1/2 cups of all-purpose flour, 1 teaspoon of baking powder, 1 teaspoon of ground cinnamon, and 1 teaspoon of kosher salt. With the mixer on low, gradually add the dry ingredients to the butter mixture. Finally, fold in 3 cups of old-fashioned oatmeal, 1 1/2 cups of raisins, and the chopped pecans until just combined.

Scoop 2-inch mounds of dough onto parchment-lined baking sheets. Bake for 12 to 15 minutes, until lightly browned. Transfer the cookies to a cooling rack and let them cool completely.

What to Look for This Week

This week’s very busy calendar includes more housing data, with appreciation figures on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales Wednesday.

Wednesday also brings two critical reports on the economy: the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the first reading on first quarter GDP.

There’s also a full slate of labor market news, with updates on job openings Tuesday, private payrolls Wednesday, unemployment claims Thursday, and non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds broke through significant resistance last week, climbing above three key technical levels: the 25-day, 50-day, and 200-day Moving Averages. There's still upward potential for bonds before hitting the next resistance point at 101.39. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield moved in the opposite direction, falling below its 25-day Moving Average support level last Friday. The next support to watch is at its 200-day Moving Average.

Make it a great week!
Ray